ANALISA SENSITIVITAS PERTUMBUHAN LALU LINTAS DAN PROBABILITAS RISIKO PADA PEMBANGUNAN JALAN TOL KATEGORI PRIORITY PROJECT

., Alfian (2013) ANALISA SENSITIVITAS PERTUMBUHAN LALU LINTAS DAN PROBABILITAS RISIKO PADA PEMBANGUNAN JALAN TOL KATEGORI PRIORITY PROJECT. Jurnal Teknik Sipil, 12 (3). pp. 181-191. ISSN 1411-660X

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Abstract

The development of toll roads in Indonesia are done through the public-private partnerships scheme. The main revenue of toll roads derived from the toll roads users. Therefore, the rate of traffic growth during the concession period is an important factor. Pekanbaru – Kandis is a project toll road of priority categories, but no investors who interested in investing. This study was conducted to determine the effect of the volume and rate of traffic growth and the probability of investment risk, so it can be used as a reference to make investment decisions. The toll road is assumed to operating in 2016. The analysis was done through simulation with 10,000 iterations on traffic growth rate varies between 1% to 10%, the vehicles tariff Category I is Rp. 490/km, and a concession period of 35 years. The results of the stochastic analysis provides information that toll road Pekanbaru - Kandis financially feasible at the traffic growth rate more or equal to 10%, with relatively low losses probability (percentile 1.71%). Eligibility is due to the assumption of a very high volume of vehicles at the beginning of the toll roads operation wich is 15.274 vehicles/day. If the investor makes limits of probability of losses at 5% (percentile 5%), the investment is very risky if traffic growth <10% per year. Growth rate of traffic vehicle Category III, IV and V are a risk factor ranking 3rd (under SBI and inflation). However, the rate of traffic growth has no significant relationship to the NPV.

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